Friday, July 11, 2003
...HoDogs make their move
A couple of weeks ago, we did an analysis that showed the HoDogs as the only legitimate contender with a lot of trinkets to trade. Well, that did not prove wholly correct as the Payolahs turned a $17 Woody Williams into Curt Schilling, Rich Aurilia AND Armando Benitez, but we are not all the trading wizards that Joe is...
This week, the HoDogs made their move with a 12-player deal with the Rynochasers.
Going to Rynochasers:
David Roberts(8B) - steals are an area where HoDogs can afford to lose. Unfortunately, this means the HoDogs may lose 1 or 2 points, but likely one of those will be to the Payolahs, the primary competitor to the Elephants. 8B Roberts is a very nice keeper, likely to generate 5 steals for every dollar spent.
Juan Encarnacion(19B) - 20/20 guy for $19 is a reasonable keeper, as long as he is allowed to run.
J.D. Drew(16A). This one as with all things J.D.Drew, depends on his health. Seems worth the risk.
Dontrelle Willis(10A). This one may haunt the HoDogs for years to come. Or Dontrelle may just be a flash in the pan. Either way, if you've seen him pitch, you know he's gotta be fun to own.
Tim Spooneybarger(1B). Hurt this year, he could be the Marlins closer by this time next year.
Duaner Sanchez(NC). If a "relief prospect" exists, then Sanchez is it. Could work his way into the Pirates closer mix by next year.
Going to the HoDogs:
Jim Edmonds(34A). Huge HR/RBI totals and a .300+ hitter essentially is a much healthier, reliable J.D. Drew.
Lance Berkman(15D03) Slumping this year, but still good for a little more pop than Juan Encarnacion, although their numbers are frighteningly similar this year (Berkman - 16/58/.281, Encarnacion - 12/55/.277 + steals)
Vlad Guerrero(25D03). The offensive wildcard. If he comes back healthy, and soon, he is the HR/RBI machine the HoDogs need and will replace Raul Gonzalez in the lineup. Assume his production will probably match J.D. Drew over rest of the year.
Tino Martinez(20A) Not much on his own, but when you consider that he will replace Lenny freakin Harris in the HoDogs lineup, then this is another big HR/RBI boost.
Steve Trachsel(4C) Wins and decent enough ERA/WHIP
Elmer Dessens(2C) Heading for the bench, methinks, Dessens provides pitching depth at least.
So net effect is the HoDogs get more power and batting average (Vlad + Edmonds power numbers is approx. net), and lose out on speed (subtract Roberts) and pitching (Willis - Trachsel). The trade certainly addresses the HoDogs power needs and may gain them as much as 6 standings points(SPs) in HR, 3-4 in RBI, and 4-5 in BA. Unfortunately it will likely cost them 2-3 points in SBs, and a point or two in ERA and ratio. But a net gain of 10 or more SPs is a trade worth making and moves the HoDogs from 6th place to 3rd place with a legitimate shot at the Championship.
While the Rynochasers last trade was considerably one-sided in favor of the Payolahs, I think they came out very well in this one. They have one sure stud keeper in Roberts, two seemingly good keepers in Drew and Encarnacion, and have two pulls at the slot machine of great keepers in Willis and Spooneybarger.
How will this affect the top two teams? The Payolahs will likely catch the HoDogs in SBs, but be passed by the HoDogs in BA. Neither team should be threatened in the power categories. And this about locks up the Coleman Cup for the Elephants, unless the Payolahs are able to catch them with their Pierre/Castillo/Young triumverate. It may free up the Elephants to deal some of their excess speed. On the pitching side, I think this trade helps catch the HoDogs in wins, ERA and Saves, and only pads the margin of error for the Payolahs. So the Elephants may be secondary beneficiaries of this deal, if things break right, and the HoDogs could be setting themselves up for another second place finish.
posted by Mariner Optimist 12:30 PM
Tuesday, July 08, 2003
...Pirating an offense
A stunning realization came to me moments ago. 6 of the 15 Elephants offensive starters come from the Pittsburgh Pirates! Yes, the Elephants are winning with all 3 starting outfielders (Lofton, Giles, Sanders), the starting 3B (Ramirez) and two Pirate catchers (Kendall & Wilson). Amazing!
Of course, since the acquisition of Pirates 5 & 6, the Elephants have slipped out of first place, so maybe the clubhouse needs an infusion of non-Pirate blood. There will certainly be no other Pirates sluggers joining the Elephants, but we would be willing to take on pitchers like Kip Wells, Kris Benson, or maybe even "All-Star" Mike Williams.
posted by Mariner Optimist 9:22 AM
Wednesday, July 02, 2003
...Payolahs use Elephant Analysis to their Advantage
In my May 22 entry, I wrote "It may be time for the Elephants to stop giving Payolahs free advice before it bites them in the trunk..." Apparently, I should have written that sentence, and then deleted the whole entry before publishing it. The Payolahs obviously read the entry with great interest, came to similar conclusions, and acted to improve their team to overtake the Elephants.
Since that article breaking down the Payolah-Elephant race was published, the Payolahs consummated two huge deals.
First, in a nifty act of selling high, the Payolahs managed to parlay Tim Redding(3A), Matt Stairs(1A), Alex Cintron(NC), and Vance Wilson(10A) into Ivan Rodriquez and Brian Jordan (as well as Alex Cora and Chin Feng Chen)
A week later, they dealt Randy Wolf (8D04), Gary Matthews and Jason Stokes(NC) to the Boards for Juan Pierre, Jose Guillen and Brian Lawrence.
And finally, they dealt Woody Williams(17A), Jose Vizcaino, and prospect Nic Jackson to the Rynochasers for Curt Schilling, Armando Benitez, and Rich Aurilia. Essentially, they sold a $17 pitcher having a career year for three studs who all have some question marks. Schilling has been hurt, but when healthy, easily replaces Woody Williams.
I wrote on 5/22 that "[the Payolahs] biggest trade token would be 8D04 Randy Wolf, but they have to get an ace pitcher back as losing Wolf could result in a loss of points in W, ERA & WHIP. Second-tier keepers include Tim Redding (3A) and Woody Williams (17A), but losing either would hurt the pitching. The Payolahs NC's include Jason Stokes and Corey Hart, but they are likely 2+ years away. Alex Cintron could get on a hot streak and yield something, but he looks to be a utility infielder in the future, not the kind of guy that lands you a Todd Helton or Vlad Guerrero. "
Well, that's exactly who the Payolahs traded (except for Corey Hart, who they will probably somehow turn into Barry Bonds). And while they did not get Helton or the now-gimpy Vlad, they got quite a haul by adding Aurilia, Pierre, Pudge, Guillen and Jordan, and their pitching may even have improved (although the risk has also increased) by replacing Redding/Williams/Wolf with Schilling/Lawrence/Benitez.
I was gonna break down how these moves helped each category for the Payolahs, but suffice to say, I will be providing no more analysis on how the Payolahs could improve their team :-) Well done, Joe!
posted by Mariner Optimist 4:04 PM
...And Alomar makes Bust #3
On Tuesday, Robert Alomar (2/22/6/.262) was traded by the Mets out of the NL to the Chicago White Sox. His trade closes the book on what may be the worst trio of picks ever assembled on a Championship contending team. Alomar $21, Mo Vaughn $23 (3/15/0/.190) and Robb Nen $29 cost the Elephants a combined $73 or more than 1/4 of the team's budget for the year. The combined production of 5 HRs, 37 RBIs, 6 SBs and a .250 batting average is about the projected statistics of $6 Craig Wilson.
So how are the Elephants still atop the standings (although the Payolahs probably will be there soon)? Frankly, I'm not sure. Preseason trades for Elephants MVP Preston Wilson (18/72/6/.301), Aaron Boone(15/47/11/.265), Orlando Cabrera(11/46/10/.295) and Austin Kearns(12/50/4/.288 before being traded) provided an outstanding offensive foundation that have the Elephants in first or second in every offensive category. The Elephants managed a few good auction buys in Robert Fick $14 (7/44/1/.309) and Kenny Lofton (8/25/15/.277) on the hitting side, and Kirk Rueter (7/3.60/1.388 before being traded) and Mark Redman $5 (6/2.77/1.143). And the Elephants found free agent gold in the form of Scott Podsednik(1/16/14/.358) who is looking like a keeper, even at $14.
Let's just hope the Elephants have seen their last AL defection of 2003. Another one will likely cost the Elephants the title.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:46 PM
